18 July 2010
Stock and Market Views
Both the Nifty and the Sensex recorded 29-month highs last week. But there was not a single celebratory beep from the market. This cynical attitude is hardly surprising given the numerous attempts made by the benchmark to ‘break out' ...
Investors with a two-year horizon can buy the shares of Wipro, a leading software services and hardware player, given the revival in volumes (person-months billed) in its IT services business and strengthening domestic presence (IT products) ...
Investments with a one-two year time horizon can be considered in the stock of Punjab National Bank (PNB), as the bank despite its size, holds strong growth prospects. The overall pick-up in credit growth augurs well for PNB, which has ...
Disappointing results over several quarters and the sharp run-up in the stock of ABB after the announcement of an open offer, have resulted in the stock trading at very steep valuations, far higher than peers and not supported by ...
The stock of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), the government-controlled downstream oil refining and marketing major, has run up sharply since the fuel pricing reform measures late ...
Investors with a high appetite for risk and a two-three year perspective may buy the stock of Simplex Infrastructures, a diversified construction contractor. Our previous buys on this stock were at Rs 137 in January 2009 and at Rs 415 ...
Results so far have only managed to pleasantly surprise the markets. While there is no telling what the next week's result announcements would entail, trends in index option trading hint at a range-bound market. Most of the open interest ...
16 July 2010
Morning views
Insurance Big Daddy turns seller in index stocks THE Big Daddy of insurance has been a seller in the index stocks in the past one week, keeping up to its reputation of being a seller in a rising market and a buyer in a falling market. Brokers said they have received selling orders from the Big Daddy in large numbers of late, mainly in oil & gas, banks and auto shares. In the past week or so, the institution has been a seller in SBI. But the buzz is, it has been a buyer in select mid-cap bank stocks. FIs make a beeline for LIC Housing, stock up 7% SHARES of LIC Housing Finance rose 7% to a 52-week high of Rs 1,073.40 supported by heavy volumes in a subdued trading session on Thursday. According to dealers, domestic mutual funds and select FIIs were heavy buyers after the company posted better-than-expected quarterly numbers. They said fund managers have been buying housing finance companies of late, mostly for trading gains. Some analysts are cautious about the outlook of housing finance companies, as firming interest rates are expected to raise their borrowing costs, thereby affecting margins. Oil cos tank as govt fails to free up diesel prices SHARES of state-owned oil marketers HPCL and BPCL crashed 6% on Thursday after the government said it will not deregulate diesel prices. The sudden about-turn in fuel policy has caught most Dalal Street stalwarts on the wrong foot. All these players had bought huge chunks of these stocks over the past couple of weeks, convinced that the sector was due for re-rating. The top guns who are long on HPCL, BPCL and IOC include the Rar(e)ing Bull, Old Fox, the high-profile second-in-command at a listed broking firm and a suave broker who shares his surname with the Old Fox. The problem now is that most of the top names are bullish on these stocks. So if they turn bearish, who are they going to sell their holdings to? Godrej Properties bucks downtrend in realty stocks AT A time when most property stocks are being cold-shouldered by fund managers as well as market operators, Godrej Properties hit a record high of Rs 691.40 on Thursday. Dealers tracking the counter say there is good interest in the stock, but at the same time, they point out that low liquidity is having a multiplier effect on the share price. A suave BSE broker, who shares his surname with the Old Fox, is said to be one of the big buyers of the stock. (Contributed by Harish Rao & Santosh Nair) |
**************************************************************
For those of us still fumbling to find the € symbol on our keyboards, today was a bad news day. Computer and mobile keyboards in India (and possibly around the globe) will soon be adding another new button – the rupee key.Piramal Healthcare
Maruti Suzuki
Voltamp Transformers, HDFC, Infotech Enterprises, Bajaj Auto
TCS - Strong Results
Colgate - Rich Valuations
Axis Bank
Daily Market Outlook - July 16 2010
Market View - July 16 2010
Src: ET, Smartinvestor, DP blog and etc
15 July 2010
Is it Possible????Dow Headed to 5000 -Charles Nenner Says
Get Out While You Can! Dow Headed to 5000, Charles Nenner Says
Posted Jul 15, 2010 07:30am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in InvestingEnjoy the recent stock market rally while it lasts. Market forecaster Charles Nenner tells Tech Ticker stocks will peak in about a month and then head south for the year.
“After late August I expect the market to go down again,” and eventually test the March 2009 lows in the next few years, he says on the phone from Israel. Therefore, long-term investors would be wise to use this rally as an opportunity to get out of stocks. “I see this as a bear market rally,” he says comparing the U.S. market to Japan – a prolonged bear market with wild fluctuations.
Until the end of August, stocks will trade in a tight range, he predicts. His near term upside target is 1155 on the S&P 500, but that’s only if it first breaks 1100. If the market finds resistance and closes below 1085, it could spell trouble.
It’s worth paying attention to Nenner's warning. As Seeking Alpha contributor Cliff Wachtel points out, Nenner has a pretty good track record with his recent calls:
• In early 2009, when markets appeared on the brink of collapse, Nenner said the S&P 500 was going from 660 to over 1000 within the coming year.
• In early 2009, he foretold gold’s 6-month run from June in the low $900s to $1220, within mere dollars of its ultimate peak at $1225.
• More recently, in December 2009 he called the top in U.S. stocks within 4 days.
His advice for the average investor: “You don't want to get in the market,” he says. “For the next couple of years, just be happy if you don’t lose money.”
When will it be safe to go back in the water? Not until the market experiences a lot more pain, he forecasts. Don’t bet on stocks for the long haul, “until you get below 7000. And preferably if you wait till 5000, which is my downside target on the Dow Jones.”
___
Other articles
| Q1 Results: | http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/News-By-Company/Earnings/earnings/75410.cms |
Src:ET and Yahoo finance
Morning calls
Revved up for robust growth
Tata Communications rises on global JV talk
Shares of Tata Communications rose 2.8% to Rs 289.20 on Wednesday in a weak market on speculation the company is close to announcing a joint venture deal with a global telecom player. The market buzz is that the deal is likely to be announced by this weekend. The stock’s rally also fanned a rumour that the path has been paved for Tata Communications to sell its surplus 770- acre land. The “value-unlocking” story of the company’s land has been attributed for any rise in the stock in the past. Brokers said the move can help the company retire debt and also benefit minority shareholders. The stock, which has risen around 5% in the past two days, has largely underperformed the market this year.
Shares of Tata Communications rose 2.8% to Rs 289.20 on Wednesday in a weak market on speculation the company is close to announcing a joint venture deal with a global telecom player. The market buzz is that the deal is likely to be announced by this weekend. The stock’s rally also fanned a rumour that the path has been paved for Tata Communications to sell its surplus 770- acre land. The “value-unlocking” story of the company’s land has been attributed for any rise in the stock in the past. Brokers said the move can help the company retire debt and also benefit minority shareholders. The stock, which has risen around 5% in the past two days, has largely underperformed the market this year.
14 July 2010
Stock and Market views
IDFC
Current Price: Rs 189.5
Target Price: Rs 195
Current Price: Rs 189.5
Target Price: Rs 195
The stock has seen a V-shaped surge from a recent bottom around Rs 140. It has developed very strong volume action in the past couple of sessions. The target on this formation should be about Rs 195 and it could go further. Keep a stop at Rs 185 and go long. Increase the position between Rs 192 and Rs 194, and reset the stop-loss to Rs 190. Start booking profits above Rs 195. If you can hold for three sessions, set a target of Rs 205-210.
TCS
Current Price: Rs 775
Target Price: Rs 760
Current Price: Rs 775
Target Price: Rs 760
The stock has seen heavy selling and this trend could continue. It has a three-session target of around Rs 745, but there is support at Rs 760, where the scrip should rest today. Keep a stop at Rs 780 and go short. Increase the position between Rs 769 and Rs 771. Below Rs 762, start booking profits. If you want to hold an "overnight", keep a target of Rs 745 and a stop-loss at Rs 770.
The target price and projected movements given above are in terms of the next one trading session unless otherwise stated
13 July 2010
Infosys Q1 net falls 2.6 per cent at Rs 1490 crore, raises annual outlook
Infosys Q1 net falls 2.6 per cent at Rs 1490 crore, raises annual outlook
BANGALORE: Infosys Technologies edged up its forecast on a revival in outsourcing demand from its mainstay financial clients, but its shares fell as markets worried a weak European economy could curb orders. India's No. 2 outsourcer reported a surprise 2.6 percent drop in April-June profit and its sales contribution from Europe fell to about 20 percent from nearly 25 percent a year ago and 23 percent in January-March. ( Watch )
The company, a trendsetter in the country's showpiece IT services sector, added 1,026 staff in April-June, with a total of 115,000 employees in June its slowest pace of addition in four quarters. The lower-than-expected profit and hiring triggered concerns of a slowdown in growth, sending its shares 2.8 percent lower in a flat market. The stock hit a record high on Monday.
The Bangalore-based software giant gained 38 extra clients for the quarter.
Infosys, known for its conservative outlook, has raised its full-year revenue growth forecast in dollar terms in the last three consecutive quarters. The company expects earnings per American depositary share to rise 5.2 percent to 9.6 percent for the year, up from its previous forecast of 4.3 percent to 8.6 percent. The guidance has been revised from Rs 25,017 crore or 10 percent YoY projected at the beginning of this fiscal in April.
BANGALORE: Infosys Technologies edged up its forecast on a revival in outsourcing demand from its mainstay financial clients, but its shares fell as markets worried a weak European economy could curb orders. India's No. 2 outsourcer reported a surprise 2.6 percent drop in April-June profit and its sales contribution from Europe fell to about 20 percent from nearly 25 percent a year ago and 23 percent in January-March. ( Watch )
The company, a trendsetter in the country's showpiece IT services sector, added 1,026 staff in April-June, with a total of 115,000 employees in June its slowest pace of addition in four quarters. The lower-than-expected profit and hiring triggered concerns of a slowdown in growth, sending its shares 2.8 percent lower in a flat market. The stock hit a record high on Monday.
The Bangalore-based software giant gained 38 extra clients for the quarter.
Infosys, known for its conservative outlook, has raised its full-year revenue growth forecast in dollar terms in the last three consecutive quarters. The company expects earnings per American depositary share to rise 5.2 percent to 9.6 percent for the year, up from its previous forecast of 4.3 percent to 8.6 percent. The guidance has been revised from Rs 25,017 crore or 10 percent YoY projected at the beginning of this fiscal in April.
"There are still concerns lingering over Europe's debts and if the economy there is weak, consumption should be weak too," said Huey Yang, a fund manager with HSBC in Taipei. Infosys and local rivals Tata Consultancy Services and Wipro have raised salaries by 10 to 20 percent on average to keep staff from being poached by global rivals in a strong market. India's export-driven software services firms, however, face uncertainty on orders from Europe, the second-biggest market for the industry after the United States. Infosys, which counts Goldman Sachs, BT Group and BP among its more than 550 customers, forecast its 2010/11 dollar revenue to rise 19 percent to 21 percent, higher than 16-18 percent projected in April. |
Stock and Market views
Titan Industries: Regaining the lustre
****************************************
Trading desk
Idea
Current price: Rs 69.5
Target price: Rs 63
The scrip has started losing momentum after a steep climb from 53 to the current levels. If it does react from current levels, the downside target could be about 63. However, it's possible that it could run up for another session or two and it's tough to set an upside target. Keep a tight stop loss at 71.5 and go short. Start booking profits below 65. If the stop is broken, go long with a stop at 71 and an initial target of 74.
Infosys
Current price: Rs 2,890
Target price: Rs 2,825-2,925 (Range trade)
Infy made an upside breakout when it closed above 2,825 last Friday. It hit a 52-week high at 2,910 just ahead of Q1 results. Today should see a lot of volatility. Infy has the potential to jump to 2,950, but it could also slide till 2,825. So, the trader should be prepared for swings between 2,825 and 2,950. Use 2,870 as a pivot. If the stock opens above 2,870, go long with a target of 2,925 and a stop loss at 2,860. If it opens below 2,870, set a stop loss at 2,880 and go short with a target of 2,835.
Tata Motors
Current price: Rs 790
Target price: Rs 810
The stock seems to have recovered from an intermediate downtrend but it is hitting resistance at 790-795. If it clears 795, an upside till 810 is possible. Keep a stop at 782 and go long. Increase the position between 795 and 798. Start booking profits above 808 because there will be a lot of selling pressure above 808-810. On the downside, there's a lot of support between 770 and 780.
The target price and projected movements given above are in terms of the next one trading session unless otherwise stated
Analysts' corner
IDBI Bank
Reco price: Rs 120
Target price: Rs 140
The government has agreed to infusion Rs 3,110 crore to aid the bank improve capital adequacy and expansion plans in future. It has also applied for increase in authorised capital, which would further give head room for raising capital for the bank and may come out with FPO in future for any capital requirement. The bank plans to continue its focus on infrastructure development which is traditionally its forte. It also plans for branch expansion of 300 branches to its existing network of 720 branches which will improve its franchise liability. The bank has sound asset quality with provision coverage of 75 per cent, well above RBI limit of 70 per cent. Maintain buy.
— Anand Rathi ResearchTitan Industries
Reco price: Rs 2,501
Target price: Rs 3,000
Volume growth in Gold recovered since H1FY10 and registered nearly 45 per cent volume growth in the fourth quarter of FY10. Expect a healthy 14 per cent volume CAGR driven by stable gold prices and pick-up in consumer discretionary demand. Consequentially, expect sales and earnings CAGR of 20 per cent and 25 per cent, respectively for FY10-12E. Improving realisations, product mix, operating leverage along with improved profitability of other businesses, will lead to 80bps margin expansion in the next two years. Expect Titan to sustain the return on equity at around 40 per cent and witness a 3x increase in free cash flows in FY10-12E. The urban discretionary demand could continue to remain healthy; Titan will be the significant beneficiary of the demand momentum. The stock is trading at 33x FY12E EPS. Maintain buy.
— Prabhudas Lilladher
Pratibha Industries
Reco price: Rs 410
Target price: Rs 508
Pratibha Industries secured a built-operate-transfer (BOT) project on annuity basis from National Highway Authority of India (NHAI). The project involves two laning with paved shoulders of Bhopal-Sanchi section of national highway (NH)-86 for 53.7 km under National Highway Development Programme Phase-III. The company has also bagged three projects worth Rs 210 crore for the construction of residential and commercial complexes. In the first quarter of FY11, the company witnessed a strong order intake, bagging two engineering, production and construction (EPC) orders and two BOT projects, totaling to Rs 477 crore. The order inflow for FY10 stood at Rs 2,685 crore. The stock is trading at 8.7x and 6.5x its FY11E and FY12E earnings, respectively. Maintain buy.
— Sharekhan
*******************************************
Titan Industries - glitter !
Sintex Industries
Aurobindo Pharma, ENIL
Daily Market Outlook - July 13 2010
Check out analysts' take on markets trend in the near future
Piramal Healthcare, Glenmark Pharma
India IIP Numbers
Sterlite Industries, Hindustan Zinc, IDFC, Industrials
Src: ET and DP blog and Smartinvestor.in
12 July 2010
Know a Web/blog
Know some Market Related Web/Blogs
http://www.niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/
http://www.twitcalls.in/
http://www.tradingontechnicals.blogspot.com/
http://www.niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/
http://www.twitcalls.in/
http://www.tradingontechnicals.blogspot.com/
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)